Offensive Panthers grab big road win

If you’re going to be wrong, you might as well be really wrong. I try not to take my predictions of each Big East matchup too seriously, focusing more on the analysis behind the prediction rather than whether the outcome was what I expected. But to pick a team to win that loses by 13, like USF did at home against Pittsburgh on Wednesday night, showed that I had missed something.That something was my underestimation of Pittsburgh based on its performances against Lafayette and Villanova in the Panthers’ first two games after Levance Fields’ devastating injury. Pittsburgh had 22 turnovers against Villanova, but I failed to account for the fact that USF, even when it is playing good defense — which it hasn’t much this season — does not tend to force many turnovers. Stan Heath’s defenses are low risk, placing emphasis on contesting shots and boxing out, not on rebounding.

So, Pittsburgh went into the Sun Dome and shot for an eFG of .603 (the fourth highest in the 20 Big East games so far) and turned the ball over just 10 times. In fact, Pittsburgh’s 79-66 win over South Florida was the most offensive game in this Big East season. The point totals aren’t striking because the game was played at a pace only faster than Georgetown’s trip to Rutgers on Saturday, but Pittsburgh and USF combined to score 1.23 points per possession, just better than the 1.22 that Villanova and DePaul combined for last Thursday.

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